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60 seconds with.......
Trevor Bridger
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Whether you receive your news by news.com, the newspapers or the TV, you will be aware that it’s been all doom and gloom. In fact many of you have commented sympathetically on how hard it must be dealing with financial planning clients in this climate.
For those of us that still read newspapers, we have been through this before. However if you have entered the workforce in the last 17 years you will have not experienced what we are going through now.
This is part of the normal investment cycle, only this time the majority of clients are better informed and more accepting of the cyclical decline that is occurring in asset values.
However this does not stop the pain for those who have or will lose their jobs, their businesses and/or their savings.
Certainly recovery will not be quick but on the other hand it will inevitably occur.
Our predictions are: • Pressure to reduce debt levels both at household and business levels will mean that the economic downturn could drag into 2010. • As far as investments are concerned, further downside in shares and credit is possible in the first half of 2009, but both could end the year stronger then now. Remember the share market anticipates an economic recovery by six to 12 months. • While listed property may recover later in the year once capital raisings are finished, unlisted commercial property values and house prices are likely to remain under pressure from slowing rental growth and forced selling. A recovery in property markets is therefore likely to be later.
Those that retain their jobs, have low or no debt and have time to go until retirement are in a good position to weather the storm and even gain an advantage. History tells us the best opportunities for long term investors is when fear is high and confidence is low. Others not as fortunate need to seek advice now.
There are some key lessons to come from 2008 including: • Investments cycles are alive and well • Higher returns come with higher risk • The role of sentiment can never be ignored • Be wary of gearing and financial engineering • The importance of diversification between fixed interest, property and shares
We are increasing our staff number’s to meet an expected increase in people seeking individual advice from a needs based professional organisation. BDO Kendalls Financial Planning is therefore positioned to help people whether they are in a fortunate position or otherwise.
 Trevor Bridger Managing Director, Financial Planning
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